McKinsey Quarterly

McKinsey Classics Newsletter
Articles of enduring interest
October 2011

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Strategy for uncertain times

Executives usually underestimate uncertainty to imagine a future precise enough to shape a discounted-cash-flow analysis. But in truly uncertain times, the resulting strategies may neither defend the company against threats nor exploit its opportunities. These executives may then throw up their hands and base strategy on pure instinct. Yet even in the most uncertain environments, strategically important knowledge abounds. More than a decade ago, a team of McKinsey authors devised a framework to determine the level of uncertainty and tailor the strategy process to it. Now more than ever, the times call for “Strategy under uncertainty.”

June 2000
Strategy under uncertainty

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