An executive's ability to read trends accurately in a rapidly changing business environment can make all the difference between riding the currents of opportunity and paddling upstream against them. But even when you have a good feel for broad emerging macroeconomic, social, environmental, and business developments, how do you assess their impact on the profitability of your own company? And what should you do about them?
The need to evaluate these developments should not be underestimated. In a recent McKinsey survey, executives around the world weighed in on the forces shaping the global business environment.1 Asked which three trends will be the most important ones for global business during the next five years, these executives chose two macroeconomic trends (the growing number of consumers in emerging economies and the shift of economic activity between and within regions) and a business trend (the greater ease of obtaining information and developing knowledge).2 But it is worth noting that executives think most of the ten trends we asked them to assess will be substantially more important for global business overall than for the profitability of their own companies.
That distinction calls for deeper analysis and reflection. For starters, executives shouldn't view...