Our latest projections1 of broadband uptake in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom indicate that, by 2005, some 28 million (or 25 percent of homes) will have a broadband connection—defined as a connection that can support a one-way videoconference with two-way sound—if market players stick to their current strategies. This number will rise to about 70 million, or 60 percent of homes, by 2010 (Exhibit 1).
Not surprisingly, these figures are less optimistic than other publicly reported forecasts, which were developed largely from the plans of broadband access, content, and service providers during the first flush of broadband fever. Our projections also take account of dynamic factors that influence the consumer’s decision to subscribe—namely, an awareness of broadband’s benefits, the extent and start-up dates of broadband networks, and the price of a broadband connection.
Dynamic models of each national market show that changes in strategy for marketing, price, coverage, and timing will really be critical. If the market players alter these determinants by changing strategy, in 2010 Europe’s broadband market could be very different indeed from our base-case projections. So there is still much to play for, particularly in those markets where broadband is...