forgot password?

  • Visitor Edition

 

Strategy, Strategic Thinking Article, stock price
Premium Content
Article at a glance:

The irrational component of your stock price

  • Market fundamentals explain share price fluctuations over the long term, but in the short term irrational investor biases and myopia can skew prices.
  • These emotionally driven deviations in the markets can upset a company's strategic plans—if its managers don't understand what lies behind the deviations.
  • The assumptions investors make about inflation and earnings projections are responsible for this skittishness.
  • Moderate adaptations to a fundamental valuation model can help companies assess the impact of emotional investors.
This article includes the following exhibits:
  • Exhibit 1: The fundamental valuation model creates a fairly accurate trend line for estimating long-term growth.
  • Exhibit 2: P/Es generated by the behavioral model are mostly within 20 percent of actual P/Es.

This article is available to Premium Members only.

Explore "Additional Thinking" to find hundreds of related, free articles.

Additional Thinking

This Week's Featured Article

Companies that divest during downturns may actually miss the best opportunities for growth. A thoughtful acquisition strategy can sometimes be the surer bet.

Search full site

This article is available to Premium Members only. Please subscribe below.

Already a Quarterly member? Log in now.
Are you a Firm member or alumnus?

Premium Membership benefits:

  • Unlimited site access, including McKinsey's latest thinking and enduring business ideas from the archive
  • Subscription to the collector's edition print journal
  • Downloadable PDFs of all articles for offline use

Premium Membership FAQs

Start by filling in this form

  • 1. Membership Information
  • 2. Shipping, Billing, & Payment
  • 3. Review & Complete

Country & Membership Term

Shipping & Handling covers all charges for your membership term.

You may pay with Visa, MasterCard, Discover, or American Express.

Member Information

View our privacy policy.

We will not share your e-mail.
See details.

Newsletter Sign-up

*Required