Kenneth Knight describes his job as helping the president of the United States and his administration “avoid surprise.” As the national intelligence officer for warning, Knight oversees a small team of analysts who serve as an institutionalized safeguard against risk—monitoring and challenging the analyses and assumptions of the broader intelligence community. In this interview, he discusses evaluating threats, overcoming cognitive biases, and constructing scenarios—challenges familiar to most private-sector strategists. McKinsey’s Drew Erdmann and Lenny Mendonca spoke with Knight in Washington, DC, in June 2009.
Watch the video, or read the transcript below.
To use the video player, please install the
Adobe Flash Player plugin version 9 or greater.
Video: Focused on foresight
Kenneth Knight shares lessons from a career spent analyzing and preparing for the unknown.
How complicated has the task of understanding threats become?
I think for me it’s been kind of reflective of the changes in the international security environment. Our warning system came into being during the Cold War timeframe. And it was...