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Peter L. Bernstein on risk

The celebrated author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk explores the history of risk and how it works in real-world markets and in our lives.

Risk doesn’t mean danger—it just means not knowing what the future holds. That insight resides at the core of risk management for companies, whether in managing the potential downside of an investment or putting a value on the option of waiting when making irreversible decisions. In this video Peter L. Bernstein also explains why in the real world the most sophisticated mathematical models can sometimes fail.

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Recommend (443)
  • 9 DECEMBER 2009
    Arif Zaman
    Principal Consultant and Visiting faculty
    Reputation Institute and Henley Business School
    London, UK

    ...His comments also provide much relevance to emerging areas such as reputational risk which is as much about behaviour and process as anything else....

    .
    Arif Zaman
    Principal Consultant and Visiting faculty
    Reputation Institute and Henley Business School
    London, UK

    What is so striking about this clip is the clarity and coherence of Peter Bernstein’s thinking as well as the manner in which it is communicated. More board directors in banks would have done well to pay heed to these words when recorded in January 2008. His comments also provide much relevance to emerging areas such as reputational risk which is as much about behaviour and process as anything else. Bernstein’s historical perspective is also very valuable—whether acknowledging Muslim mathematicians, postwar mindsets, or Nobel laureate groupthink at LTCM. His intellectual imprint is much missed.

    .
  • 25 JUNE 2009
    Gil Adams
    Phd Candidate
    Stuart School of Business
    Chicago, IL USA

    ...While providing a necessary and widely-used method of expressing and evaluating risk, historical standard deviation is lacking. Its usage in finance is adequate, but barely so....

    .
    Gil Adams
    Phd Candidate
    Stuart School of Business
    Chicago, IL USA

    Thank you for putting Bernstein’s interview online allowing us, who did not know him, to hear his words in his own voice and to see his video image. He was a knowledgeable man who will be missed. Fortunately his ideas are preserved through his books and other writings.

    On a side note I would like to express a few related but simple thoughts that I have been harboring. Who could not agree with Peter Bernstein that Harry Markowitz’s “return vs risk” was a “thunderbolt” concept? Notwithstanding that it is a profound concept expressed through simple math, I am often amazed that anyone could receive a Nobel prize based on a mathematics that every high-school algebra student understands—an x-squared term has two solutions. For good or bad, financial mathematics has become a bit more sophisticated since the 1960’s!

    Nevertheless, with that singular concept Markowitz forever defined “risk” in the financial world. While providing a necessary and widely-used method of expressing and evaluating risk, historical standard deviation is lacking. Its usage in finance is adequate, but barely so. Unfortunately, as is so often when translating from a specific field’s jargon, risk does not mean in finance what it means to the general population. Bernstein demonstrated this disconnect during the interview when he said, “Our instinct says risk means we’re in danger. But it doesn’t.” Hence the recurring theme on the consequences of errors in “Against the Gods”.

    .
  • 17 JUNE 2009
    Dr. Sampada Kapse
    Professor
    Tolani Institute of Management Studies
    India

    ...‘Against the Gods’ was inspiration for me to do Phd. in Risk Management area....

    .
    Dr. Sampada Kapse
    Professor
    Tolani Institute of Management Studies
    India

    Thanks for this. Peter Bernstein’s ‘Against the Gods’ was inspiration for me to do Phd. in Risk Management area. The story of risk is narrated in a very lucid and effective way.

    .
  • 11 JUNE 2009
    Rob Bailhache
    Managing Director
    Financial Dynamics
    London, UK

    Peter Bernstein’s insights on gold and the universal tendency of governments to debase the value of their currencies is also a prescient work for our times.

    .
    Rob Bailhache
    Managing Director
    Financial Dynamics
    London, UK

    Peter Bernstein’s insights on gold and the universal tendency of governments to debase the value of their currencies is also a prescient work for our times.

    .
  • 11 JUNE 2009
    Michael Webster
    Partner
    Law Office of Michael Webster
    Toronto, ON Canada

    Peter Bernstein and Ian Hacking should be read together, as they discover the remarkable epistemic change from 1640 onwards....

    .
    Michael Webster
    Partner
    Law Office of Michael Webster
    Toronto, ON Canada

    Peter Bernstein and Ian Hacking should be read together, as they discover the remarkable epistemic change from 1640 onwards.

    We replaced stories, which gave us the illusion of control, with data and probabilities, which gave us the possibility of control.

    Bernstein’s intelligence will continue to shine in this area.

    .
  • 9 JUNE 2009
    Mustafa Gultekin
    Professor
    University of North Carolina
    Chapel Hill, NC USA

    Peter Bernstein was one of the true Renaissance men of the finance world. He will be missed.

    .
    Mustafa Gultekin
    Professor
    University of North Carolina
    Chapel Hill, NC USA

    Peter Bernstein was one of the true Renaissance men of the finance world. He will be missed.

    .
  • 9 JUNE 2009
    Kathy Aaronson
    CEO
    The Sales Athlete, Inc.
    Los Angeles, CA USA

    Thank you for giving us the opportunity to celebrate his life and outstanding contributions. Where would we be without his sage advice?

    .
    Kathy Aaronson
    CEO
    The Sales Athlete, Inc.
    Los Angeles, CA USA

    Thank you for giving us the opportunity to celebrate his life and outstanding contributions. Where would we be without his sage advice?

    .
  • 9 JUNE 2009
    Leonardo Pontes dos Reis
    President
    LPdR
    São Paulo, SP Brazil

    Fun to read, Against the Gods is one the most clarifying books on risk management. The world already misses Peter Bernstein. The Gods welcome him.

    .
    Leonardo Pontes dos Reis
    President
    LPdR
    São Paulo, SP Brazil

    Fun to read, Against the Gods is one the most clarifying books on risk management. The world already misses Peter Bernstein. The Gods welcome him.

    .
  • 8 JUNE 2009
    Bruce McDougall
    President
    Brucer Media Inc.
    Canada

    Thanks for this. Peter Bernstein has done for risk what Charles Darwin did for evolution. I admire him without reservation.

    .
    Bruce McDougall
    President
    Brucer Media Inc.
    Canada

    Thanks for this. Peter Bernstein has done for risk what Charles Darwin did for evolution. I admire him without reservation.

    .
  • 8 JUNE 2009
    Rosanne Bachman
    Managing Director
    Pinwheel Consulting Ltd
    United Kingdom

    What sad news. Against the Gods was one of my favorite books—it was so well written, I could hardly put it down....

    .
    Rosanne Bachman
    Managing Director
    Pinwheel Consulting Ltd
    United Kingdom

    What sad news. Against the Gods was one of my favorite books—it was so well written, I could hardly put it down. I recommend it and use quotes from the book all the time. He had a beautiful way to make a somewhat dry topic come to life. I had no idea he was 90. I would have loved to see an interview with him in November of 2008 to get his reaction to the financial crisis. Thank goodness you interviewed him in January. It was a delight to see him and hear his words of wisdom. Thank you.

    .
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