The latest McKinsey Global Survey of Business Executives tells a two-sided story of growth and risk. On the one hand, rising affluence in developing economies and the increasingly fast pace of technological innovation present new opportunities for growth. Yet these same forces are driving the emergence of low-cost business systems that make global markets increasingly competitive, thus upping the "topple rate," at which companies lose their leadership positions.¹ The most recent McKinsey Quarterly survey quizzed some 9,300 business leaders around the world (see sidebar, "About the research") on the most important trends influencing the global economy in the next five years, with a particular focus on growth and the constraints to it.

Eighty-one percent of the executives surveyed think that increasing affluence and growing demand for goods in developing economies will be important during the next five years. Some 70 percent believe that these factors will buoy the profitability of their own companies. Technological innovation and the corresponding proliferation of new technologies emerged as an equally critical trend, which 81 percent of the executives consider important and 71 percent see as a significant driver of profitability.

The survey also highlights key differences of opinion. While most executives...