Billions of dollars, euros, pounds, and reais are pouring into biofuels. High fuel prices and generous regulatory support have given the industry healthy margins and relatively short investment payback times. Meanwhile, the triumphs of the first movers and dreams of future growth are enticing companies in industries from petroleum and agribusiness to biotechnology, chemicals, engineering, and financial services. And of course, the allure of a greener future has raised the expectations of investors and bystanders who hope that biofuels will help meet the world’s energy needs while lowering greenhouse gas emissions.
Can biofuels deliver? The answer appears contingent on fuel prices as well as three other variables that directly influence the profitability and environmental impact of biofuels: the cost and availability of feedstock, government regulation, and conversion technologies. All are in flux, so an investment today is a bet on how these interrelated factors will evolve. Feedstock costs vary tremendously by region and could change significantly in the years ahead. Governments may alter the industry’s ground rules to match changing priorities in climate change, energy security, and economic development. The energy, cost, and carbon efficiency of various biofuels are already quite different,1 and new conversion technologies could make them...